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2nd GIG episode Martial Law
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secondhandevil



Joined: 07 May 2006
Posts: 16
Location: The Republic of Valverde

PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2006 7:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

And they could have taken cover behind vehicles too. The same way the speratists did,but armored.
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AlphonseVanWorden



Joined: 05 Mar 2006
Posts: 170

PostPosted: Sat May 13, 2006 6:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

douyang wrote:
could easily spin that the other way by pointing out that if shooting does break out and there are large numbers of GSDF casualties due to the troops' complete lack of protection, there would be a storm of outrage against the government by both civilians and the military.

Plus it makes no sense if your goal is to put down the revolt with a minimum of casualties (or at least a minimum of your own casualties).


secondhandevil wrote:
And they could have taken cover behind vehicles too. The same way the speratists did,but armored.


I like the way you assume that folks are behaving sensibly... Rationally, according to what each side believes to be the case, yes. But not sensibly.

And it's interesting that your talk of barricades, etc., assumes that hostilities are unavoidable...

Which would be apparent in hindsight, but not in the situation as it initially appears.

And I believe that if you wanted to put the insurrection down with a minimum of casualties to your side, an airstrike would be the correct idea.

Or it would be.

But...

This is, in a way, a jurisdictional thing, and a legal matter. If you use your troops to conduct a ground-based offensive on your own soil, well, what's the legal status, under Japanese law? And who commands things?

Probably the Cabinet and the Prime Minister...

Think of the story of the real Individual Eleven...

Remember, things are, at this point, going exactly according to the Big G's "script." But any and all of it could be avoided, at any point.

Think of it this way. The refugees have seized what is, in effect, part of Japan. They may have a nuke. (We know they don't, but a lot of people think they do.)

If a firefight breaks out before the government bombs Dejima, from the point-of-view of certain people in the government, things could get very bad, very quickly.

If there is a nuke...

But there isn't. Right?

But let's assume that there is one, or that the public believes there's one, that some people in government assume there is one.

If the refugees had a nuke, they could use it-- but there'd certainly be no hope of autonomy at that point. If they detonated it, they'd be dead, either because of the blast (if they detonated it on the island) or because of immediate retaliation. Given that the island is in Nagasaki Bay, a nuclear blast would probably stir up unpleasant historical memories and result in exactly the kind of situation that the Big G seems to want. Remember, Mr. Peanut alludes to the initial conditions for and drive towards nationalism (the Individual Eleven), and he mentions the consumerism and economic drive of the Cold War period... The psychological impact of nuclear detonations was implied, but not stated. ("Foreigners did this... foreigners did this...")

There has to be that threat...

And it's important to note that the nuclear material Kuze was trying to get his hands on was going to be leverage... He's smart enough to realize that actually using a nuclear device would be the end of the revolution, unless we think that he was willing to see a pockmarked planet as a potential goal. In other words, if he was intending to use a nuke, other revolutionaries in Japan and elsewhere would have to do the same...

But a fake bomb's already been planted and discovered...

Kuze just sees that as helping, as it implies the threat-- the leverage-- is real...

Let's leave aside the fact that some-- but certainly not all-- people in the government know that Kuze and the refugees don't have nuclear material, and look at the situation. Since the refugees aren't recognized legally and are attempting to negotiate autonomy, it isn't in their best interests to open fire-- as such a conflict would lead to their extermination, and as the State could claim that any such action was necessary and justifiable. (The government's already planning an airstrike on Dejima, but the refugees don't know that, and I doubt if the soldiers in the field know that, at the time of this episode.) There's no indication that the refugees are going to open fire on the soldiers. One can't point to the suicide bombings, as those were primarily solo acts directed against Individualist gathering places, and the refugees are now working as a unit, and they have specific and revolutionary (as opposed to purely reactionary) goals. (Or they were acting as a unit, until their lines of communication were cut.)

Also, if the refugees fire on the soldiers when the soldiers haven't gone on the offensive, the government can point out that the aggression was committed by a criminal uprising. Any attack on the soldiers would turn public opinion-- not against the government, but against the refugees.

Notice that Kuze didn't want the refugees to fire on the soldiers... for exactly that reason. The refugees'd get slaughtered, and they'd provoke their own slaughter by firing on government personnel-- exactly as some refugees did in an earlier episode, when they fired on Section Nine. (And, again, one could look at the information and say that those refugees were opening fire in order to make sure that the nuclear material got delivered safely to Dejima. Kuze wonders why the refugees did it... No one else does, as the motive I've suggested-- providing a distraction-- seems the most obvious choice.)

And we know that Kuze sees the wholesale "self-sacrifice" of the refugees as, on some level, pointless and futile. He said as much.

Again, why would anyone assume the refugees won't open fire?

Because they're making demands. The behavior and motivation is different from the earlier incidents. And it's not like a simple hostage situation, so you can't just put up barricades.

And besides, to put troops behind barricades is to suggest-- to the public, to the Chinese, to the Americans-- that you're expecting a prolonged standoff. It also suggests-- implicitly, almost subliminally-- that you're either not doing anything in the near future, or that you might be negotiating with the terrorists, or that your own country has become a combat zone.

And if you put up barricades, it might cause the refugees to think that you're anticipating a fight...

You have no reason to assume that the refugees will open fire. They seem to think their demands stand a chance of being met, and they're acting in a pretty rational way. They know that they can't win in terms of actual combat. You know the same thing. The public and international community know that. To barricade your troops is to imply-- to your own people, to the international community-- equal footing with the refugees or-- depending on how you look at it-- that the refugees have brought you down to their level. And it might have the additional effect of provoking the refugees into thinking that you want or are anticipating a firefight, as you're digging in. And they might do something dangerous... with a nuke, if they have one. Or one of their sympathizers might.

The deadline-- the point at which the refugees will most likely open fire, once the airstrike begins-- is still some time off.

And there's still time to move the troops before the airstrike.

And notice that most of the government is willing to just launch an airstrike on the island. They don't want a firefight. They're not even anticipating one. They want to catch the refugees off guard...

The only facsimile of leverage the refugees have is their alleged possession of nuclear material.

And everyone's doing various things to avoid a worst-case scenario. (There are several worst-case scenarios, all depending on the viewpoint or "side" in the conflict.)

And our Mr. Peanut-lookalike is encouraging the attempts...

Remember when he told a soldier in an earlier episode that a refugee had a gun, and the refugee was just standing there, but the soldier freaked out at the idea and opened fire?

Think about it. Soldiers are just standing there, basically working as security rather than as an offensive force. Refugee communications go down, and one of them freaks, assumes the worst, and shoots a soldier...
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douyang



Joined: 18 Feb 2006
Posts: 128

PostPosted: Sat May 13, 2006 1:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Again, why would anyone assume the refugees won't open fire?

Because they're making demands. The behavior and motivation is different from the earlier incidents. And it's not like a simple hostage situation, so you can't just put up barricades.

And besides, to put troops behind barricades is to suggest-- to the public, to the Chinese, to the Americans-- that you're expecting a prolonged standoff. It also suggests-- implicitly, almost subliminally-- that you're either not doing anything in the near future, or that you might be negotiating with the terrorists, or that your own country has become a combat zone.

And if you put up barricades, it might cause the refugees to think that you're anticipating a fight...

You have no reason to assume that the refugees will open fire. They seem to think their demands stand a chance of being met, and they're acting in a pretty rational way. They know that they can't win in terms of actual combat. You know the same thing. The public and international community know that. To barricade your troops is to imply-- to your own people, to the international community-- equal footing with the refugees or-- depending on how you look at it-- that the refugees have brought you down to their level. And it might have the additional effect of provoking the refugees into thinking that you want or are anticipating a firefight, as you're digging in. And they might do something dangerous... with a nuke, if they have one. Or one of their sympathizers might.


It makes no sense that they should assume the refugees won't open fire, even if they're not looking for a fight and really want their demands to be met. Japan's government should realize that accidents can and do happen, and that there is always the possibility of a shootout occuring regardless, whether due to the stupidity of a single person on either side (like that kid with the rifle) or orders from higher up. (Sure, the refugees would be destroying their chances for nationhood if they started something, but you assume that the Japanese assume that their leaders know what they're doing and won't go there.)

I don't see how valuing the lives of your own soldiers and giving them some cover is anything but common sense, or how it would send the wrong message to foreign powers. If not barricades, they could use armored vehicles. Given that the refugees are heavily armed and could open up any minute, standing out in the open and making yourself an easy target strikes me as pretty stupid, and I doubt that the actual troops on the ground would willingly stand there even if the higher ups ordered them to.

I have no idea what you mean by "bringing them down to their level". Or how providing cover will unneccessarily provoke the refugees.
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